Bottom line: "...experts still think that even if things are starting to look up now, we shouldn’t assume we’ll be back to normal anytime soon. In fact, economists think there are still significant economic risks despite the tentative rebound, including a second wave of COVID-19, an unwillingness to spend from consumers and an absence of an additional fiscal stimulus from Congress."
Key points:
- They expect "a steep drop followed by a quick partial recovery and a longer period of slower, mixed growth."
- It seems "unlikely (33 percent probability) that GDP will creep back up to where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019 any time before the first half of 2022."
Takeaway: "The economists in our survey think the economy has a long way to go before it returns to normal.."
